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The morning line: Round 4

Second weekend of Finals gets underway with a mixed bag

LAS VEGAS (November 5, 2009) - Round 4 is a mixed bag of bulls – some of the very best, some of the youngest, some of both. In any round at the Finals, the guys who have the best bulls should be the favorites. In this round, I have those guys in with the honorably mentioned, because I think the bull has the edge, but one of them is bound to come through. My favorites here have the best matchups.

The Odds-On Round 4 Favorites:

Ryan McConnel on Bad Action:
Ryan has been one of the big stories this past week, and he’s got the bull to make his story bigger in Round 4. Bad Action is a classy bull that is rideable, and takes riders to high scores consistently. Kody Lostroh was 90 on him at Reno in his last Built Ford Tough Series appearance.

Valdiron de Oliveira on Copp Hou:
Copp Hou has already been out twice in Vegas: once in the ABBI Wild Card event, and once in Round 3. That’s a lot for such a young bull. Valdiron de Oliveira himself is also a lot for a young bull, but if Hou has one more in him, this could be a round winner.

Aaron Roy on Migraine:
Aaron is having a good finals. Migraine produces high scores, and should be easier to ride than Charlie Bullware, whom Aaron bested in Round 1.

Travis Briscoe on Legacy:
Travis is looking to get back on track after a good showing in Round 1, and this is a good bull to do it on. In a round that’s about having a good matchup, Travis has a great matchup.

The Round 4 Honorably Mentioned:

Brian Canter on Deja Blue:
Brian is 1-for-3 on him, but this is the kind of bull you have to get it done on here at the Finals.

Dustin Elliott on Derringer:
This is a bull that is ridden pretty often by right-handed riders, and almost never by lefties. Dustin was 89 points on Derringer in Albuquerque this year.

Elliott Jacoby on Bushwhacker:
I mention this matchup mainly because of the bull. After Round 3, this is the highest marked currently active bull in the PBR that has appeared at any level at least five times. It’s not unusual for a bull to debut pretty high in the rankings with only five outs, but it is unusual for one to debut at No. 1. Another interesting fact is that even though Bushwhacker only has five outs in the books, one of them was against Elliott Jacoby at the Enterprise Tour event in Stockton, Calif., just a month and a half ago. The outcome of that was a buckoff and a 47.5-point bull score for Bushwhacker. Although he was ridden in Round 3, Bushwhacker looks like a tough task for anyone, but at least Jacoby knows what he feels like.

J.B. Mauney on Fireplug:
I don’t think this bull has much chance of bucking J.B. off, but it’s hard to say what bull will show up here. Typically, bulls produce higher scores in the PBR’s lower-level events than they do at the BFTS events. Travis Briscoe took Fireplug to an 89-point score in Springfield, but his average score is only around 86.5. Fireplug does have three recent 45-46 point bull scores off the BFTS, and J.B. will need one of those to rise to the top of this round.

Kody Lostroh on Mission Accomplished:
Look for Kody to make the whistle again, and like J.B. he’s going to need the most this bull has to offer. His average score is around 87.5, and Kody needs more than that.

Skeeter Kingsolver on Black Pearl:
If Skeeter is going to make a splash at his first PBR Finals, tonight is the night. If Black Pearl is going to make a move for World Champion Bull, he needs to come up big tonight too. Things haven’t gone very well for Skeeter since he got here, and there are two ways he can take that; he could feel more pressure to get one ridden, or he could feel like he’s got nothing else to lose. Black Pearl vs. a capable lefty with nothing to lose equals a round win.

Ednei Caminhas on Splat Kat:
Ednei wasn’t having a good Finals till he rode a tough bull in Round 3, but Splat Kat is a get well bull. Everyone gets well on him – especially right-handed riders. He will need all this bull has, because he’s a little underpowered compared to the best bulls in the round, but he can produce round wins.

Josh Koschel on Bad Yeller:
Hard bull to ride, and has bucked off Koschel before, but is worth a lot of points.

Thiago Paguito on Anything:
Actually, he has 5G’s Depths of Despair, who carried Michael Manes to 88.5 points in Round 3. My new rule of handicapping bull riding is: If the bull can be ridden, Thiago can ride him.

The World Leaders:

Guilherme Marchi on Stinger:
Marchi hasn’t had any luck in the draw or the drafts here this year, and nothing changes tonight. Stinger is a bull that doesn’t look like a favorable matchup for him, and did buck him off in Des Moines this year. With an average score of 86.25 points, he may not be enough bull to place in the round if Marchi can ride him. I would expect Marchi to turn things around, and after the three-day layoff this would be a great time for that, but he needs better bulls, and if he can get by this one, he will be in better shape for Round 5.

-by Slade Long